US President Donald Trump has already sparked up his upcoming reelection campaign for the 2020 polls. Since his first day at the White House, President Trump has made various changes on the way politics and economy rolls in the United States of America. Perhaps his recent risky move in making America great again is the trade war with China, which he believes will raise the US stock market much higher than it would have ever reached in history. However, many political analysts and economists have doubts that Trump’s trade war would benefit the country, plus the fact that the US has great deal to lose if it loses in this trade war. The most likely outcome of a failed trade war would be another great recession in the United States, which would spell trouble to Trump’s reelection bid next year.
Growing Odds That The United States Is Heading Towards Another Recession
A recession is something that all Americans would not like to experience ever again in their lives. Unfortunately, statistics show that there is an increasing chance of a recession in 2020. According to the Bank of America, the probability of a recession in the next year is greater than 30 percent, while Goldman Sachs mentions a growing recession risk with Trump’s trade war showing signs that it would eventually fail. To note, a recession is not yet guaranteed to be in our doorstep next year, but the predictions on the trade war do not look good.
A recession will have a lot of negative implications on the daily life of a normal individual. For someone who enjoys checking out the great deals at the Amazon Great Indian Sale, a crippled market is the least welcomed. Therefore, experts are calling for a thorough study of Trump’s economic tactics for the benefit of the country.
Looking at the history of the past presidents of the United States of America, since the Civil War, only one president was lucky enough to win a reelection with a recession occurring in the last years of his first term, and that is none other than William McKinley in 1900. The notable presidents who ran for reelection but lost with an ongoing recession during their first term are William Taft, Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush. If the current trade war indeed results to a recession, then Trump has a lot of problems to deal with to seal another victory. Aside from a possible recession, the previous federal government shutdowns under his term does not bode well for his reelection.